CAPE Valuations June 2018

CAPE Valuations March 2018

For those of you following my quarterly CAPE updates, you’ll know I have been tracking the ten cheapest markets worldwide, as listed on starcapital.de.  Last year saw a fantastic before-fees return of 25.59%.

I have started the same process again this year, with a post early in 2018 kicking it all off.  You can read it here.

The Ten Cheapest Countries

For those of you new to this series, the premise each year is to identify and theoretically buy these ETF’s at the beginning of the year.  These will then be held for the full year.  The only re-balancing is done once a year in January.  I will also be bench-marking these returns against the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), which carries an expense ratio of 0.11%.  ‘Cheapness’ is defined as the best combination of expense ratio and spread, and ETF’s will be sector neutral.

So which are the ten cheapest as of January 2018 that have entered the portfolio?  (Current CAPE ratio in brackets)

  • Russia (6.5)
  • Czech Republic (9.8)
  • Turkey (12.1)
  • Brazil (14.2)
  • Poland (12.4)
  • Spain (13.6)
  • Portugal (14.1)
  • Singapore (14.4)
  • Israel (14.7)
  • Hungary (15.2)

How to Buy Them

Russia

The iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (ERUS) carries a 0.62% expense ratio and has returned 7.90% year-to-date.

Czech Republic

There is no dedicated ETF for the Czech Republic at present.  The ETF with the highest weighting to the Czech republic I could find is the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) with a 2.44% exposure.  This ETF carries a 0.68% expense ratio and has returned -2.19% year-to-date.

Turkey

The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) carries a 0.62% expense ratio and has returned -5.67% year-to-date.

Brazil

The Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) carries a 0.19% expense ratio and has returned 7.92% year-to-date.

Poland

The iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) carries a 0.62% expense ratio and has returned -6.38% year-to-date.

Spain

The iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (EWP) carries a 0.49% expense ratio and has returned -0.58year-to-date.

Portugal

The GlobalX MSCI Portugal ETF (PGAL) carries a 0.61% expense ratio and has returned -0.73% year-to-date.

Singapore

The iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF (EWS) carries a 0.49% expense ratio and has returned 1.58% year-to-date.

Israel

The iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) carries a 0.62% expense ratio and has returned -6.87% year-to-date.

Hungary

There is no dedicated ETF for Hungary at present.  The ETF with the highest weighting to Hungary I could find is the Guggenheim MSCI Emerging Markets Equal Country Weight ETF (EWEM) with a 4.17% exposure.  This ETF carries a 0.70% expense ratio and has returned -2.26% year-to-date.

Summary

The ETF basket made a roaring start to 2018, with a gross return of 5.12% at the end of January.  Interestingly, however, whilst all but two countries have seen an increase in their CAPE ratio, returns have dropped right off.  The total gross return year to date for the basket is -0.728%.  Less impressive, for sure, however the benchmark (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) is down -5.63% over the same period.  To be broadly flat over this time frame is actually pretty good.  I’ll see you in July.

Happy investing!

 

Leave a comment below, or find me on Twitter @BritishInvestor.

6 thoughts on “CAPE Valuations March 2018”

  1. FWIW. The Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL) has a 8% weighting in the Czech Republic according to the last fact sheet. I dont know how often it rebalances……

    I did not realise the GVAL ETF is run by Meb Faber using country CAPE strategies. Investors can invest in a single ETF to play this whole strategy. Cool.

    1. It was based on reading one of Meb’s books that I wanted to start this whole series. I think all of his books are free at the moment? If not, they’re very cheap.

  2. Good work on posting your investments.
    I’ve just recently discovered Meb, so googled current cape ratios to start looking for some index’s/etfs and up popped your posts!
    Will be tracking with a keen eye as I start to look into the options more.
    cheers

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